After more than two decades of uninterrupted growth, global solar is heading for its first annual decline. BloombergNEF expects roughly 649 GW of new PV in 2026, slightly below the ~655 GW it estimates for 2025 — a dip of about 0.9% and the first year-on-year drop in the industry's history, as reported by Taiyang News. S&P Global's analysts reach the same conclusion.
What is driving the dip
- China, which installed around 315 GW in 2025, is expected to add 180-240 GW in 2026 as it shifts from fixed tariffs to market-based power pricing, according to the China Photovoltaic Industry Association.
- The United States is set to moderate to roughly 43 GW as tax-credit and trade-policy changes work through the project pipeline.
- Most other regions — Europe, India, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Latin America — keep growing, just not fast enough this year to offset the two largest markets.
The long view
Analysts see 2026 as an adjustment, not a reversal. Installations are expected to rebound in 2027 to around 688 GW, and the world is still on track to add roughly 2.8 TW of new solar between 2026 and 2030 — enough to double the world's cumulative PV fleet.
What it means for buyers and suppliers
A flat year sharpens competition: module prices stay low, weaker players consolidate, and suppliers push harder into new export markets. For buyers it is a good year to qualify new vendors; for sellers, visibility across more countries matters more than ever. Browse solar companies by country or manufacturers worldwide.
Sources: BloombergNEF (via Taiyang News); China Photovoltaic Industry Association; Wood Mackenzie; SolarPower Europe Global Market Outlook.