Module buying in 2026 is trickier than the headline "oversupply" suggests. Here is where prices stand at mid-year.
The numbers
- Tier-1 mono TOPCon modules from China traded around $0.085-0.095/W FOB in Q1 2026 — near historic lows (SurgePV).
- Upstream, polysilicon inventories reached 570,000-600,000 tonnes in early 2026 — roughly 300 GW of latent module supply — pushing polysilicon prices from under RMB 50/kg in January toward RMB 30/kg by April.
- Yet finished-module prices rose for four consecutive months this spring, as Chinese production cuts and the industry's self-discipline pact tightened actual availability (pv magazine).
- The newest signal: forward prices are easing again on softer European demand (pv magazine, July 3).
The outlook
BloombergNEF sees China FOB prices drifting toward $0.07-0.08/W by 2028 as oversupply works through the system — but the floor is defended: most Tier-1 makers now refuse orders below cash cost. Regional gaps stay wide: US prices carry tariff and FEOC premiums, while Europe's inventories have normalized and distributors no longer sit on 6-12 months of stock.
What it means
Waiting for dramatically cheaper modules is probably a losing trade; supplier quality and delivery certainty matter more than the last cent per watt. Compare manufacturers worldwide and distributors on SolarXList.
Sources: SurgePV; pv magazine; BloombergNEF estimates cited in trade press.